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Friday, June 27, 2014

2008-2014 RSO Totals from National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC)


OK, I kept updating the June 25th post so I decided to just make a second follow-up post today. 

So if you have not read the earlier post on NCMEC’s RSO counts, scroll down first read it and then scroll back up to this one and click on read more.

Mary
 

Yesterday I made a simple chart, today I made a very big chart (too wide) to post on the blog. The below chart is missing the totals for December 2009, June 2010, June 2011 and November 2011 (because it won’t fit) but is still very informative.

National Missing and Exploited Children's Count of Registered Sex Offenders in the U.S. 2008 to 2014
 2008     September2014        June% of Total RSO's in U.S. in 2014Growth Rate 2008 to 20142008 to 2014 Difference2008/2014 Difference as Average per Month Increase 
Alabama 10,17713,000 27.73% 2,823 41<10%
Alaska 3,2333,147   -86  N/A10%-20%
Arizona 14,48114,505 0.16% 24 0.3521%-39%
Arkansas 8,37713,575 62.05% 5,198 7540-49%
California 114,69275,297  9.72%  -39,395  N/A50%-59%
Colorado 10,19616,378 60.63% 6,182 9060-74%
Connecticut 5,0685,355 5.66% 287 475-80%
Delaware 3,5284,673 32.45% 1,145 1781+%
Florida 49,41963,544  8.20%28.58% 14,125 205
Georgia 15,91024,574  3.17%54.45% 8,664 126
Hawaii 2,5272,828 11.91% 301 4
Idaho 3,1614,003 26.63% 842 12
Illinois 19,99822,802 14.02% 2,804 41
Indiana 9,7229,256   -466  N/A
Iowa 5,1785,830 12.59% 652 9
Kansas 6,3917,837 22.62% 1,446 21
Kentucky 7,0729,865 39.49% 2,793 40
Louisiana 7,98810,824 35.50% 2,836 41
Maine 2,1593,088 43.02% 929 13
Maryland 4,6888,694 85.45% 4,006 58
Massachusetts 10,50711,399 8.48% 892 13
Michigan 44,22841,004  5.29%  -3,224  N/A
Minnesota 14,58617,499 19.97% 2,913 42
Mississippi 5,0598,212 62.32% 3,153 46
Missouri 7,15214,142 97.73% 6,990 101
Montana 1,7412,319 33.19% 578 8
Nebraska 2,8144,534 61.12% 1,720 25
Nevada 6,1627,348 19.24% 1,186 17
New Hampshire 3,9702,579   -1,391  N/A
New Jersey 12,18515,273 25.34% 3,088 45
New Mexico 2,3423,793 61.95% 1,451 21
New York 27,19236,909  4.76%35.73% 9,717 141
North Carolina 11,75015,265 29.91% 3,515 51
North Dakota 1,1752,011 71.14% 836 12
Ohio 18,09819,065 5.34% 967 14
Oklahoma 10,4206,338   -4,082  N/A
Oregon 14,80026,926  3.47%81.93% 12,126 176
Pennsylvania 9,69816,366 68.75% 6,668 97
Rhode Island 1,6861,556   -130  N/A
South Carolina 10,87713,728 26.21% 2,851 41
South Dakota 5,1783,213   -1,965  N/A
Tennessee 11,83220,334  2.62%71.85% 8,502 123
Texas 53,91180,573 10.41%49.45% 26,662 386
Utah 6,4317,005 8.92% 574 8
Vermont 2,4861,629  - 857  N/A
Virginia 15,18920,829  2.68%37.13% 5,640 82
Washington 20,13321,213 5.36% 1,080 16
West Virginia 2,8214,180 48.17% 1,359 20
Wisconsin 20,35923,115 13.53% 2,756 40
Wyoming 2,5421,703   -839  N/A
District of Columbia 7821,039 32.86% 257 4
Guam 446743 66.59% 297 4
Northern Mariana Islands 12272  - 50  N/A
America Samoa48164 241.66% 116 1.68
Puerto Rico 1,9913,333 67.40% 1,342 19
Virgin Islands 53114 115.09% 61 0.88
Total664,731774,600  109,869 
more RSO's in 2014 than in 2008

After completing the complete chart I am convinced the NCMEC numbers are wrong.  

Quick reminder of VSP totals from earlier post:

Virginia State Police (VSP) Annual Report: Monitoring Registered Sex Offenders in Virginia     (includes incarcerated RSO's which is about 1/3 of the total count)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008     December 1st
2009     December 1st
2010    December 1st
2011    December 1st
2012    December 1st
2013    October 16th
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Total
15,297
16,238
17,623
18,663
19,530
20,360

The question now is, did NCMEC inflate the numbers years ago to create hype and hysteria about RSO’s and the need for the registries and harsher new laws? And now in 2014 are they trying to make the numbers closer to being accurate? Or are they too low today because they can’t be bothered to retrieve accurate data from every state?

I was very surprised to see a significant decrease (39,000) in California because as of today ALL California RSO’s are “lifers” with no ability to ever get removed, other than moving out-of-state or dying. But Oklahoma having some sort of decrease makes sense with the successful 2013 court challenge, maybe that why Indiana has a decrease as well. But why decreases in Michigan and New Hampshire? 

In 69 months how could Arizona only add 24 additional folks? Are they granting every petition for removal that is filed or is that a high-death rate state for RSO’s? 

Then there is the question, does the NCMEC totals capture ALL RSO’s or just the public ones. There are states that don’t publically post the juvenile RSO’s or their misdemeanor offenders (Tier/Level 1’s) or states where the Tier/Level 2’s aren’t posted for everyone to see but yet all of these folks who aren’t posted must still register with the authorities, they must abide by some or even all of the restrictions and if they slip up they face a new felony. Are these RSO’s who are on a private/authority-only-access list captured in NCMEC’s count? 

As an advocate who uses data to oppose myth-based legislation and proposals against RSO’s, I’d like to know. I would also think states want to be accurately represented by the NCMEC and any hidden agenda, bias or inability to properly count each states RSO’s should be of concern to the states. 

Someone needs to look into to the last 7 years of NCMEC counts for Sex Offenders in the U.S. before one more article references their count. That could include long distance phone calls, different time-zones or official FOIA requests (with fees) plus in VA there is a law that a non-Virginian can not request a FOIA for Virginia data. I image we aren't the only state that has such a law so if I started calling 49 other states as a Virginian, some may deny my request.  So yesterday I reached out to 20-35 other advocates across the U.S. asking if they’d send me their states most recent and official RSO count plus who the owner/manager of their registry is so I could confirm the data. It’s been 24 hours and I’ve only heard back from 2 advocates so I’ve sent my concerns and the data to some reporters hoping that one take an interest and will do a story on these questionable numbers. 

Mary Devoy