Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Why Does the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC) Count of Sex Offenders in the U.S. Not Add Up?

In the last week a revised Missing and Exploited Children’s Organization U.S. Count of Registered Sex Offenders has been posted on-line. 

Back in a December 13, 2013 post per the annual Virginia State Police Sex Offender Monitoring Report I shared as of October 16, 2013 Virginia had 20,360 RSO’s. 

As you can see from the above image as of June 3, 2014:
  • There are 774,600 Registered Sex Offenders in the U.S. and its Territories
  • Virginia has 20,829 of those Registered Sex Offenders 
Officially these numbers could already be a month or more out-of-date and knowing the official VSP growth over the last 6 years in Virginia is 860 to 1,380 new RSO’s every year (12 month timeframe), I find the NCMEC growth of Virginia from October 16th to June 3rd , difficult to believe. 

So is the overall NCMEC growth accurate? 

Going back to previous Missing and Exploited Children Maps that I’ve saved:
  • September 2008:          664,731 in the U.S           and        15,189 in Virginia
  • December 2009:            704,777 in the U.S           and        16,163 in Virginia
  • June 2010:                        716,750 in the U.S           and        16,813 in Virginia
  • June 2011:                         739,853 in the U.S          and        18,131 in Virginia
  • November 2011:             747,408 in the U.S          and        18,552 in Virginia
I was unable to locate a NCMEC map for 2012 or 2013. I can’t remember if I looked for updates those years and never found one or if I just forgot to look for two years in a row and now they aren’t available. 

So let’s compare the NCMEC Virginia totals above to the Virginia State Police Sex Offender Monitoring Report totals:
  • December 2008:                                                                          15,297 in Virginia
  • December 2009:                                                                          16,238 in Virginia
  • December 2010:                                                                           17,623 in Virginia
  • December 2011:                                                                            18,663 in Virginia
As you can see, in 2010 there was a huge discrepancy (810) between NCMEC’s numbers and the VSP’s numbers. 

NCMEC’s total quantity of RSO’s in the U.S. from November 2011 of 747,408 to June 2014 (30 months) of 774,600 does not make sense.  

That would be ONLY 27,192 additional RSO’s in 30 months (2,277 of the 27,192 are in Virginia alone) for the entire U.S.? Not possible! Not when states (like Texas and California) increase their individual registries by 10,000+ in one or two years. 

We know for a fact that in 2010 they had an error for Virginia. 

Someone needs to look into to the last 7 years of NCMEC counts for Sex Offenders in the U.S. before one more article references their count. 

Mary Devoy

How many sex offenders really live among us? Adjusted counts and population rates in five US states, 2012
Alissa R. Ackerman, Jill S. Levenson & Andrew J. Harris

Registered Sex Offenders in the United States: Behind the Numbers, 2012
Andrew J. Harris, Alissa R. Ackerman & Jill S. Levenson