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Sunday, January 3, 2016

National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC) Count of Sex Offenders is the “Go To” Total for Every News Article, Research Study and Report But After 10.5 Years of Data, it Appears to Be Extremely Flawed


Note- I can email my full spreadsheet (May 2005 to December 2015) to anyone who is interested, it’s just too wide to post on this blog (as an image) and attachments (PDF's, ,.doc's, .exe's, etc) can not be loaded onto Blogger. - Mary


In November 2015 the Virginia State Police (VSP) published the latest count of RSO’s in Virginia as 22,049 with 9,278 of those being incarcerated. But NCMEC claims in December 2015 (a month later) Virginia has 21,958 and they supposedly do NOT counting incarcerated RSO’s. 

In November 2014 the Virginia State Police counted 21,342 RSO’s with 9,138 of those being incarcerated while NCMEC claimed in December it was 21,235 (not too far off, but still counting our incarcerated RSO’s). 

And in October 2013 the VSP counted 20,360 RSO’s with 9,138 of those being incarcerated while NCMEC claimed in December (2 months later) it was 20,345 (again not too far off but still counting our incarcerated RSO’s) 

Back in 2010 there was a difference of 810 between the NCMEC count and the VSP count for Virginia. 

But yet EVERY media outlet goes to the NCMEC for the Registered Sex Offender count in the U.S. and researchers have also depended on the NCMEC’s count as accurate.
 


Here are a few of the issue I’ve noticed with NCMEC’s 10 years of data:
California:
  • June 2010                                                                         120,782
  • June 2011                            it dropped to                      106,216
  • July 2012                             it dropped to                       72,753
  • June 2014                                                                           75,297
  • December 2014                 it jumped to                        108,420                             
  • June 2015                                                                          112,240
  • December 2015                 it dropped to                       101,696                      
 
The only way to get off the California Sex Offender Registry is to move to another State or to die. What happened from 2011 to 2012 for such a drastic decline in RSO’s? Or in just 6 months of 2015 10,544 RSO’s are just gone? 

There have been some changes in law and some court rulings that added or removed RSO’s retroactively like in Oklahoma, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio so a one to two year drop or increase in those States makes sense but a constant up and down doesn’t. But yet Oklahoma has a rollercoaster count similar to California. 

Oklahoma:
  • December 2009                                                      11,384
  • June 2010                           it dropped to                         6,506  
  • July 2012                              it jumped to                        8,404
  • May 2013                             it dropped to                        7,644    
  • December 2013 it stayed exactly the same           7,644                 
  • June 2014                            it dropped to                        6,338     
  • December 2014                 it dropped to                         5,929                   
  • June 2015                                                                            6,652                   
  • December 2015                 it dropped to                         6,149      

Iowa:
  • December 2009                                                      5,041  
  • June 2010                           it jumped to                         6,510  
  • June 2011                                                                            6,907  
  • November 2011                 it dropped to                         5,445                     
  • December 2014                                                                 6,037                   
  • June 2015                            it dropped to                       5,512                                                                                   
  • December 2015                 it dropped to                       5,265                                    
Look at Arizona in 69 months (5.75 years) they only added 24 additional people, I find that highly unlikely. 

Vermont RSO count has continued to drop for the last 31 months by a total of 1,580 less, why? 

In the last 24 months (2 years) Washington, D.C. has only added 54 RSO’s, I find that highly unlikely. 

  • We add an average of 965 new people to our Registry ever year (this includes people moving to another state or dying)
  • At an average of 85 people per month which works out to be an average rate of growth of 4.76%. 
Now to compare NCMEC’s data:
  • Virginia adds an average of 69 new RSO’s per month which works out to be an average rate of growth of 3.40%
  • Placing Virginia at 2.60% of the total RSO’s in the U.S.
So there is a 16 person, per month discrepancy between the Virginia State Police and NCMEC. 

There will always be an ebb-and-flow to RSO population growth, those who move to another state, death, new crimes being implemented, court rulings adding people or removing people, court petitions for removal being granted, etc.  

But if the NCMEC is obtaining their data from the authorities (like the VSP) shouldn’t it match up? 

Then I have this question.

Does the NCMEC totals capture ALL RSO’s or just the ones who are required to register publicly? 

There are states that don’t publically post the juvenile RSO’s, there are States that don’t post their misdemeanor offenders (Tier/Level 1’s) and there are States where the Tier/Level 2’s aren’t posted for everyone to see but yet all of these folks who aren’t posted must still register with the authorities, they must abide by some or even all of the restrictions and if they slip up they face a new felony. Are these RSO’s who are on a private/authority-only-access list captured in NCMEC’s count? 

NCMEC’s counts have fluctuated and stymied so significantly over the years that the media should not only stop referencing their tally of RSO’s in the U.S. as fact but question where NCMEC is getting their data from.  

Mary Devoy