Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Inconsistent Data Still Being Distributed: National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC) Count of Sex Offenders for June 2016 Claims a 1.08% Growth Rate, Yet Virginia had 3.33% in Growth.

Note- I can email my full spreadsheet (May 2005 to June 2016) to anyone who is interested, it’s just too wide to post on this blog as an image and attachments can not be loaded onto a blog.  

Every June and December I begin checking the NCMEC website for their latest "Sex Offender" count because the number they claim is the go-to for the media, Politicians, Researchers and Victim’s Groups.  

Today their latest map is available, National Missing and Exploited Children Sex Offender Map June 17, 2016:  

I have previously posted about the inconsistencies with NCMEC’s RSO maps/counts here and here with specific examples of their failures. Which is no real surprise when you consider the known false statement that NCMEC’s Ernie Allen made in 2010 to Congress……….that 100,000 convicted RSO’s are NOT registered and are missing across the U.S. If NCMEC claims it, it must be true so this falsehood has been repeated over and over again for years and everyone believes it, but it’s NOT true.  

Now that we have the June 2016 NCMEC Sex Offender Map I'm wondering........ how could the State of Virginia see a 3.33% growth in RSO’s in the last 12 months but the entire U.S. only had a 1.08% increase?  

They claim New York only had a 1.84% increases and Ohio saw a 0.006% increase. These States are bigger than Virginia; they’ve always had a larger RSO population and growth than Virginia. 

How can it be possible that 50 States, D.C. AND 5 Territories had a combined total of 8,190 new RSO’s in the last 12 months and 719 of those were in VA?  That means Virginia added 8.77% of the entire nations RSO’s.
Note: I have been tracking the RSO rate of growth in Virginia for the last 8 years and we average 1008 new RSO’s EVERY year. Year in and year out the VA breakdown of RSO's works out to be approximately 1/3 are incarcerated, 1/3 are in the communities but under VA-DOC Probation supervision and 1/3 are in the communities and under VSP supervision. As for the civilly committed SVP's in VA, I don't know which group the VSP places them in, but they are in the total count. 

There will always be an ebb-and-flow to RSO population growth, those who move to another state, death, new crimes being implemented, court rulings adding people or removing people, court petitions for removal being granted, etc.   

But only 8,190 new RSO’s in 12 months for the entire country and Virginia being 8.77% of that growth just does not add up. 

These NCMEC’s counts/maps are a joke and the media, Researchers, Politicians and Victim’s Groups that continue to reference them as factual need to stop, today!  

Mary Devoy