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Tuesday, December 13, 2016

50 States Per Capita for Registered Sex Offenders, As of December 2016 Oregon is #1, West Virginia Moved Up 9 Spots to #18, South Carolina Dropped 20 Spots to #36 and Virginia is #23


OK, since the NCMEC December 2016 Map came out in the last 2 days, the Per Capita Chart I originally created during the 2016 Virginia GA session per the request of a Virginia Delegate needed to be revised. 

NCMEC gives the 100,000 per capita numbers but that really doesn’t mean much to most folks, they need something a bit more tangible. So I took the idea from my Virginia State Police Registry Growth chart where I calculate 1 out of every Adult Male in the State. 

Now, not every Registered Sex Offender is a Male, in Virginia approximately 5% of the VSP Registry is female. 

Also not every Registered Sex Offender is an adult; there are juveniles in most States who are Registered Sex Offenders. Plus there are States with Private Registries and NCMEC doesn’t state anywhere if their official count is including juveniles or private lists. Finally NCMEC claims their Registered Sex Offender count does NOT include incarcerated Registered Sex Offenders, well what about civilly committed SVP’s? We just don’t know. 

So this Per Capita Chart (see below) for December 2016 is as good as the NCMEC data. 

Here are the most notable changes and similarities with the new chart versus the June 2016 per capita chart: 

  • Oregon remains #1 per capita for Registered Sex Offenders. 1 out of every 139 Person, 1 out of every 107 Adult Person, AND 1 out of every 52 Adult Male is a Registered Sex Offender.
  • The Territory of Guam remains at #2 per capita for Registered Sex Offenders. 1 out of every 166 Person, 1 out of every 127 Adult Person, AND 1 out of every 62 Adult Male is a Registered Sex Offender.
  • Texas moved up from #14 to now #12. 1 out of every 310 Person, 1 out of every 237 Adult Person, AND 1 out of every 116 Adult Male is a Registered Sex Offender.
  • Alaska dropped from #13 to #15. 1 out of every 315 Person, 1 out of every 242 Adult Person, AND 1 out of every 118 Adult Male is a Registered Sex Offender.
  • West Virginia jumped up from #27 to #18.  1 out of every 337 Person, 1 out of every 258 Adult Person, AND 1 out of every 126 Adult Male is a Registered Sex Offender.
  • Wyoming jumped up from #26 to #21. 1 out of every 362 Person, 1 out of every 278 Adult Person, AND 1 out of every 136 Adult Male is a Registered Sex Offender.
  • Vermont moved up from #34 to #31.
  • New Jersey moved up from #44 to #41.
  • The District of Columbia moved up from #47 to #44.

December 2016 U.S. Sex Offender Map from National Center for Missing & Exploited Children (NCMEC) is Now Online. They Say There are 859,500 Registered Sex Offenders in the 50 States and 5 U.S. Territories.


Note- I can email my full spreadsheet (May 2005 to December 2016) to anyone who is interested, it’s just too wide to post on this blog as an image and attachments can not be loaded onto a blog.

 
Every May/June and December I begin checking the NCMEC website for their latest "Sex Offender" count because the number they claim is the go-to for media, Politicians, Researchers and Victim’s Groups.  

Today I found their latest map for December 6, 2016: http://www.missingkids.org/en_US/documents/Sex_Offenders_Map.pdf 

So I updated my Excel spreadsheet (see below) that tracks the counts from every NCMEC since May 2005 including the rate of growth. Then I updated my per capita chart. 

There will always be an ebb-and-flow to the U.S. RSO population growth, those who move to another state, those who die, new crimes being implemented in States, Court rulings that add or remove people, Court petitions for removal being granted, etc.   

Here are a few of the December 2016 issues that I see in NCMEC’s Map: 

  • In June 2016 NCMEC claimed South Carolina had 15,131 RSO’s. Its 6 months later and now they say South Carolina has 9,977. Where did 5,154 RSO’s go in just 6 months?
  • In contrast we have Illinois and West Virginia. In June 2016 NCMEC claimed Illinois had 21,913 and for December 2016 their count is 23,921. That’s 2,008 new people in 6 months! As for West Virginia, in June 2016 they had 4,604 and in December 2016 it jumped to 5,485, that’s 881 new people at a 20% rate of growth in 6 months!
  • Florida has 8% of the entire U.S. RSO population but yet NCMEC’s growth rate for Florida for the last 6 months has barely moved. In June 2016 it was 68,845 and now for December 2016 it’s supposedly 68,899.
  • And Massachusetts hasn’t added even one new RSO in 2 years according to NCMEC. December 2014, June 2015, December 2015, June 2016 and December 2016 they claim it’s remained at 11,399.